Tools for Analysing Shares ● 温顺 By Hoe Soon There are many methods to assess the fair value of a share. Before the value of a share can be determined, we must un-derstand what it is. Shares in general re-fer to the ordinary shares issued by the company, and they represent the owner-ship of a part of a company. Suppose a company has issued a million shares and you own one share, this means that you own one millionth of that company. Since shares represent ownership of a company's dividend, profit, revenue, as-set and cash flow, the ways to value shares will be based on these five catego-ries of figures. Financial ratio analysis is based on these five categories of data in a com-pany's balance sheet and income state-ment, and turns them into ratios for com-parison. Besides comparing between the company's present and historical ratios, comparisons are also made against other similar companies, the industry average and the overall stock market average. We will start with the dividend yield, which is defined as dividend received in a year divided by the share price. For example, a company pays five cents divi-dend a year and its share price is a dollar, then the dividend yield is 5% ($0.05 divi-ded by $1 mutliplied by 100). One can find out the amount of dividends paid by companies from Monday's Lianhe Zaobao or Teletext. These show the dividend amount and the ex-dividend date. One only re-ceives the dividend if the share is bought before the ex-dividend date. In the newspapers or Teletext, a share with 'cd' behind the company name indicates cum-dividend and 'xd' means ex-dividend. Sometimes, the dividend amount is stated in percentage rather than cents. One should not confuse the percentage stated as dividend yield. The percentage is based on the dividend declared divided by the par value, not the share price. Most shares have a par value of $1. Those with a par value other than $1 have their par value printed behind the com-pany name. For example, 'SingTel 15￠ means that Singapore Telecom has a par value of 15 cents. Last year, Singapore Telecom declared a dividend of 5 cents or 33.33% (i.e. 5 cents divided by 15 cents). Based on share price of $2.70 then, its di-vidend yield is $0.05/$2.70=0.0185%, not 33.33%. A company usually pays dividends twice a year, one declared during the in-terim results (known as interim dividend) and the other during the final results (final dividend). When calculating the dividend yield, one should add both the interim and final dividends to arrive at the annual di-vidend. In a particular year, a company might achieve a very high profit that is unlikely to be repeated, but it wishes to reward shareholders with a higher di-vidend without building up expectation that the high dividend will be repeated. In this situation, the company will declare a special dividend on top of the usual one. When forecasting a future dividend, one should take note that the special dividend is unlikely to occur again. The payout ratio refers to the propor-tion of profit paid to shareholders. For example, a company which earns $1 per share and pays out a dividend of 30 cents per share, has a payout ratio of 30%. For a company to pay good dividends, it must have sufficient profit to be able to pay and it must be willing to pay. For a gro-wing company, it will have to keep most of its profit to buy more plants and equip-ment and thus its dividend payout ratio will be low. There are also some com-panies which prefer to keep the profits for rainy days and are therefore reluctant to pay them out as dividends. A typical company with a high dividend payout normally owns a mature cash-generating business and it does not have any worthy expansion plan. A good example is toba-cco stocks. However, a high payout ratio does not necessarily lead to a high divi-dend yield because the share price could be high too. The returns obtained from investing in a share can be broken down into two components - capital gain and dividend yield. If the share price does not change, then the investment return is equal to the dividend yield. The risk of buying a share that offers a high dividend yield is therefore capital loss, i.e. the share price falls. In the end, the share price could fall so much that the capital loss wipes out all the dividend yield. It, however, remains a loss if the share is not sold. Most invest-ment books recommend stocks with a high dividend yield for investors who are retired or need a steady stream of income. If one invests for yield, the divi-dend yield will have to be higher than de-posit interest rates in order to be attrac-tive. （The writer is a graduate from a university in the United Kingdom.） 阐明股票的东西 评估股票的公道价值有很多要领。在评估之前，我们必需了解股 票是什么对象。股票一般是指公司所刊行的普通股，它代表了股东对 公司的拥有权。假设某间公司刊行了100万股，而你拥有一股，那就 暗示你拥有整间公司的百万分之一。既然股票代表了公司的股息、盈 利、营业额、资产及现金流量的拥有权，评定股票价值的要领就从上 述五方面着手。 比率阐明就是将一间公司资产欠债表与损益表中的这五项数字， 转化为可供比力的财政比率。所谓比力，现代职业教育，除了比力该公司的此刻与过 去之外，比力的工具也包罗沟通行业的其他公司，整个行业的平均以 及整体股市的平均。 先从股息率（也称周息率）说起。股息率是一年的总股息除以股 价。例如，一间公司派发0.05元的股息，而它的股价是1元，那么， 股息率就是5%（0.05元除以1元）。若要知道公司所派的股息有几多 ，可以查阅星期一的《联合早报》或电视资讯。它们会显示股息额和 除权日期。只有在除权日期之前购置股票才气享有股息。在报纸或电 视资讯，公司名称后若附有“cd”，暗示该股票包罗股息，而“xd” 则暗示不包罗股息。 有些时候股息的数目是以百分比表达的，而非实际数额。投资者 不行以把这个百分比与股息率混合。这个百分比是股息除以面值（而 非股价）。大都股票的面值是1元。若不是1元，它们的面值会显示在 公司名称的后头。例如，“SingTel 15￠”暗示新电信的面值是0.15 元。去年新电信公布5分股息或33.33%（0.05分除以0.15元）。按照 $2.70的股价，它其时的股息率是$0.05÷$2.70=1.85%，而非33.33%。 一间公司凡是一年里会派息两次，一次在中期业绩时（称为中期 股息），而另一次在年终业绩时（年终股息）。计算股息率时，一年 的总股息包罗了中期和年终股息。某一年，公司的盈利可能到达很是 高的程度，但是来年却难再创同样的佳绩。公司但愿以更高的股息回 报股东，可是又不但愿股东等候下一次的股息同样高。在这样的环境 下，公司会公布往常的股息再加上出格股息。所以，要预测未来的股 息，他得注意出格股息将难以反复。 派息率（也称配息率）是指公司净利分配给股东的比率。举例来 说，一间赚取每股1元盈利的公司筹备派发0.30元股息，它的派息率 是30%。一间公司若要派发高股息，它必需有富裕的净利以及有足够 的意愿去做。生长中的公司必需把赚到的盈利保存下来，添置厂房和 机械，所以它的派息率较低。有些公司则要保存盈利，以备危急时可 用，所以不肯把盈利分发出去。高派息率的公司凡是从事成熟的行业 兼拥有大量现金，以及没有任何值得投资的扩展打算。烟草股就是个 好例子。不外，高派息率并不暗示公司的股息率是高的，因为其股价 也可能挺高的。 投资股票的回报可分为两部门——成本增值和股息率。若是股价 稳定，那么，投资回报率只即是股息率。所以，购置高股息率股票的 风险就是成本损失，也就是股价下跌。最后，股价可能跌到成本损失 完全盖过股息率。不外，这只是帐面上的吃亏，因为股票还在手里。 很多投资书都建议退休人士或仰赖牢固收益的人购置高股息率的股票 。如果纯为了收益投资股票，那么，所得的股息率必需高于存款利息 。（作者是英国大学结业生）
